Iran war complicates Japan’s task of keeping US focused on Indo-Pacific

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, described by US President Donald Trump as having a “very fine relationship” with him at summit talks on March 19, wants to keep Washington focused on the Indo-Pacific region with China in mind, but the war in Iran is complicating that effort, diplomacy experts say.

It was crucial for Ms Takaichi to shape the US President’s approach towards Beijing in Tokyo’s favour ahead of his upcoming visit to China for talks with President Xi Jinping, originally slated for the end of March but postponed because of the Middle East conflict.

“Currently, the security environment is severe not only in the Middle East but also in the Indo-Pacific region,” Ms Takaichi told Mr Trump during their meeting at the White House, which was partly open to the media, apparently in reference to China’s growing military activities.

“I appreciate Donald placing his deep confidence in Japan and remaining committed to our unwavering alliance despite this situation,” she said.

Mr Trump announced the date of his summit with Ms Takaichi in February, months after he had indicated he would visit China in the spring for talks with Mr Xi.

Mr Masafumi Ishii, a director at the Resona Research Institute, said the timing of the summit with Japan, ahead of the one with China, was optimal.

It is important for Japan to “input” what it hopes the United States will do before Mr Trump heads to Beijing, Mr Ishii, a former diplomat who once served as Japanese ambassador to Indonesia, said.

Professor Kazuhiro Maeshima of Sophia University, who is well versed in American politics and foreign policy, agreed on the need for Japan and the US to be aligned on their China policies ahead of the US-China summit.

He warned that instability in the Middle East could thin the US military presence in the Indo-Pacific, saying it was essential to caution Mr Trump against adopting an “overly conciliatory stance” towards China.

“Whether Japan will be able to prevent him from saying at the summit with President Xi things like the United States would not intervene in the event of a contingency involving Taiwan, is especially important,” Prof Maeshima said, referring to the democratic self-ruled island which China regards as an inalienable part of its territory.

In a press statement issued after the talks on March 19, the White House said Mr Trump and Ms Takaichi “committed to peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait as an indispensable element of regional security and global prosperity” and “opposed any attempts to unilaterally change the status quo, including by force or coercion”, but without naming China.

Prof Maeshima said a strong US-Japan alliance is “the most effective card” Washington holds in negotiations with China, something Mr Trump is likely to “understand well”.

Ms Takaichi has cultivated a strong personal rapport with Mr Trump, notably shown during their joint visit to a US nuclear-powered aircraft carrier at Yokosuka city, near Tokyo, during his Japan trip shortly after she took office in late October.

The display of their close ties was intended as a signal to China that Japan is “firmly aligned” with the US, Prof Maeshima said.

In that context, Mr Trump’s decision not to defend Ms Takaichi after her remarks in November on how Japan could potentially get involved in a Taiwan crisis may reflect his desire to avoid complicating US-China relations.

“He likely wanted her not to say anything unnecessary,” Prof Maeshima noted.

Ms Takaichi’s remarks in Parliament that an attack on Taiwan could constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan, potentially prompting the Japan Self-Defense Forces (SDF) to act in support of the US, infuriated Beijing and sent Japan-China ties to their lowest point in years.

A US intelligence report said on March 18 that Ms Takaichi’s remarks represented a “significant shift” for a sitting leader of Japan, though Tokyo’s top government spokesman pushed back against the assessment, saying the government’s position has been consistent.

At the summit on March 19, Mr Trump touched on Japan-China ties, saying during the part open to the media: “I know they have a little bit of an edgy relationship, and I just like to know where it stands.”

Mr Ishii said it would have been important for Ms Takaichi to convey to Mr Trump that she has no intention of withdrawing her Taiwan remarks and that Washington should address Beijing with that understanding in mind.

Meanwhile, the conflict in the Middle East, triggered by the Feb 28 US-Israeli air strike on Iran that has drawn criticism over its legality under international law, has put Japan in a difficult position.

Japan, a close US ally, relies on the Middle East for more than 90 per cent of its oil imports and maintains broad diplomatic ties in the region, including traditionally friendly relations with Iran.

Mr Trump recently called on countries, including Japan, to dispatch vessels to help secure the safety of navigation in the vital oil shipping route of the Strait of Hormuz.

While he later backed down from the request after their reluctance to step in, Mr Trump reiterated at the March 19 talks his plea for more support from Tokyo and others.

Ms Takaichi said she told Mr Trump that Japan is ready to contribute to the safety of the strait, but also explained “in detail what Japan can do and cannot do” from a legal perspective under the country’s war-renouncing Constitution.

For Japan, whose pacifist Constitution makes overseas deployments of the SDF politically sensitive, options remain limited, many analysts say.

Given the unstable Middle East situation, Mr Ishii added that leveraging Tokyo’s connection with both Washington and Tehran to pursue mediation efforts could align with Ms Takaichi’s vision of what she calls Japanese diplomacy “flourishing on the world’s centre stage”. KYODO NEWS